1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2023	278685	The Barracks Emperors	Current	3	9.00	0.00	0.00
			Estimated	400	7.67	5.89	2.85

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The Barracks Emperors is a strategy card game set against the backdrop of the Roman Crisis of the Third Century, during which at least 45 different men made a claim to the throne of the Roman Empire. In this game, 1-4 players represent prominent political factions attempting to gain control over the men who would be Emperors of Rome. Players deploy the influence available to them (represented by the cards in their hands) to claim imperial reigns (represented by the historical Emperor cards arrayed on the board.) But they must be very careful, because politics is a complex game, and sometimes attempting to exert your influence necessitates aiding someone else in their own plots. Play your cards cleverly to capture Emperors and score the most points to win. At its heart, The Barracks Emperors is a trick-taking game, but not one like you’ve ever seen before. In this innovative design, all 13 tricks are available for play simultaneously, in an interlocking grid that forces you to balance the value of every card you play against the value that same card may have for another player on a different trick. Plus, every card grants you an additional special ability that you might be able to use to spring a surprise on your unwitting opponents. Features: Historical emperors, co-emperors, pretenders, and even Gallic Emperors who broke away from Rome during the Crisis of the Third Century are all represented as individual cards in the game, each with interesting facts about the rise and demise of the man depicted. For fans of Time of Crisis and The Age of Iron and Rust, you will find some of the concepts and flavor from that deck-building wargame, adapted in this all new standalone game. You don’t need Time of Crisis to play The Barracks Emperors, but you’ll recognize Influence Cards such as Praetorian Guard, Foederati, and Pretender, now used in an entirely new way. An innovative card drafting mechanic adds an extra layer of strategy to how you play your cards while also mitigating the luck that would come with being dealt a full hand of cards at the start of each round. This game is designed for 4 players, but also includes options for 2 or 3 players, plus an easy-to-play solitaire adaptation for the solo player. Components: 114 2.75" x 2.75" cards 22" x 34" mounted game board 6 x +1/+2 markers (2 each of Red, Blue, and Yellow) 20 page rule book

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/278685

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Barracks Emperors? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Barracks Emperors. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Barracks Emperors. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2023	278685	The Barracks Emperors	1.00	0.00	9.00	2.85	3
1	1906	1260	Rook	0.90	6.01	6.41	1.87	2,715
2	2005	17204	Control Nut!	0.89	5.59	6.27	1.93	219
3	2008	20079	Pacific Typhoon	0.89	5.85	6.65	2.02	794
4	2015	181761	Plums	0.86	5.98	6.58	1.79	1,386
5	1996	1938	XXL	0.86	5.46	4.49	1.20	67
6	2017	224815	Deca Slayer	0.85	5.54	6.52	1.50	64
7	2017	240584	Blend Coffee Lab.	0.84	5.59	6.65	2.50	156
8	2014	156373	Chimera	0.84	5.93	6.98	2.18	724
9	2013	127748	Alliances	0.83	5.46	4.53	2.20	68
10	1990	3085	Gang of Four	0.83	6.10	6.61	1.87	2,339
11	2020	285071	Ugly Christmas Sweaters	0.83	5.60	7.17	2.40	130
12	2017	217298	Anansi and the Box of Stories	0.82	5.53	6.28	2.00	73
13	1999	174	T-Rex	0.82	5.50	5.50	1.90	273
14	2017	232078	Pot de Vin	0.82	5.61	6.30	1.86	322
15	1982	4951	PAC-MAN Card Game	0.81	5.49	5.03	1.00	33
16	2011	110160	Old Men of the Forest	0.81	5.51	5.57	1.54	259
17	2002	3632	Too Many Cooks	0.81	5.82	6.34	1.40	1,093
18	1810	6819	Skat	0.81	6.14	7.24	3.05	1,109
19	2003	8188	Die wilden Fußballkerle	0.81	5.51	5.84	1.50	32
20	1830	154394	Sheepshead	0.80	5.63	8.16	3.00	94
21	2020	324345	キャットインザボックス (Cat in the box)	0.80	5.66	7.72	2.00	137
22	1984	10906	Beggars and Thieves	0.80	5.52	6.16	1.50	62
23	1895	9364	Doppelkopf	0.80	6.09	7.54	2.93	760
24	2014	181319	Familiar's Trouble	0.80	5.60	6.63	1.67	171
25	2020	286081	Herrlof	0.80	5.70	6.84	1.36	329

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Barracks Emperors while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2023	278685	The Barracks Emperors	0.00	1.00	0.00	9.00	2.85	3
1	1906	1260	Rook	5.43	0.90	6.01	6.41	1.87	2,715
2	2008	20079	Pacific Typhoon	5.20	0.89	5.85	6.65	2.02	794
3	2015	181761	Plums	5.15	0.86	5.98	6.58	1.79	1,386
4	1990	3085	Gang of Four	5.06	0.83	6.10	6.61	1.87	2,339
5	1925	2181	Bridge	5.00	0.75	6.68	7.46	3.86	2,964
6	2014	156373	Chimera	5.00	0.84	5.93	6.98	2.18	724
7	2005	17204	Control Nut!	4.98	0.89	5.59	6.27	1.93	219
8	1810	6819	Skat	4.96	0.81	6.14	7.24	3.05	1,109
9	2014	152162	Diamonds: Second Edition	4.91	0.75	6.56	6.92	1.55	5,149
10	1895	9364	Doppelkopf	4.89	0.80	6.09	7.54	2.93	760
11	2010	37628	Haggis	4.86	0.74	6.54	6.97	2.11	4,112
12	2017	233961	Claim	4.84	0.75	6.46	7.00	1.74	3,413
13	2003	8129	Sluff Off!	4.83	0.77	6.28	6.87	1.86	2,378
14	1997	1107	Nyet!	4.80	0.77	6.25	6.78	1.92	2,460
15	1995	619	The Bottle Imp	4.78	0.76	6.32	6.74	1.87	3,456
16	2009	54307	Chronicle	4.78	0.78	6.16	6.81	1.96	1,828
17	2018	243430	Dealt!	4.75	0.77	6.17	7.09	1.41	1,253
18	2017	224815	Deca Slayer	4.73	0.85	5.54	6.52	1.50	64
19	2017	240584	Blend Coffee Lab.	4.72	0.84	5.59	6.65	2.50	156
20	2002	3632	Too Many Cooks	4.72	0.81	5.82	6.34	1.40	1,093
21	1998	338	Bargain Hunter	4.70	0.79	5.91	6.73	1.88	879
22	1996	1938	XXL	4.68	0.86	5.46	4.49	1.20	67
23	1864	4583	Pinochle	4.65	0.78	5.98	6.88	2.31	993
24	1848	6901	Euchre	4.64	0.75	6.23	6.82	1.70	2,394
25	2020	285071	Ugly Christmas Sweaters	4.62	0.83	5.60	7.17	2.40	130

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2023	278685	The Barracks Emperors	GMT Games	Wray Ferrell		Ancient	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Hand Management
				Brad Johnson (I)		Card Game	Ancient: Rome	Open Drafting
						Political		Set Collection
								Team-Based Game
								Trick-taking

Individual Game Analysis